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David Fleming
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The “18 degrees” estimate is based on the conversion factor proposed by H. Damon Matthews and cited in Hatice Cullingford, “‘Matthews Measure’ Proposed New Yardstick for Climate Change”, Science 2.0, 10 September 2009: “In summary, independent of the timing of emissions or the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, each tonne in carbon emissions means—as a best estimate—0.0000000000015 degrees of global temperature increase.” For a survey of the caveats that should be taken into account, see H. Damon Matthews, Nathan P. Gillett, Peter A. Stott and Kirsten Zickfeld, “The Proportionality of Global Warming to Cumulative Carbon Emissions”, letter in Nature, 459, 11 June 2009, pp 829–832.

David Fleming
Dr David Fleming (2 January 1940 – 29 November 2010) was a cultural historian and economist, based in London, England. He was among the first to reveal the possibility of peak oil's approach and invented the influential TEQs scheme, designed to address this and climate change. He was also a pioneer of post-growth economics, and a significant figure in the development of the UK Green Party, the Transition Towns movement and the New Economics Foundation, as well as a Chairman of the Soil Association. His wide-ranging independent analysis culminated in two critically acclaimed books, 'Lean Logic' and 'Surviving the Future', published posthumously in 2016. These in turn inspired the 2020 launches of both BAFTA-winning director Peter Armstrong's feature film about Fleming's perspective and legacy - 'The Sequel: What Will Follow Our Troubled Civilisation?' - and Sterling College's unique 'Surviving the Future: Conversations for Our Time' online courses. For more information on all of the above, including Lean Logic, click the little globe below!

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